Iran
It looks like things are coming to a head in Iran. I’ve been glued to the news coming out of there for the entire week. I think the Iranian uprising could be one of the most important events of the year, something of world-historical significance. If you haven’t been following along, here’s a bit of a recap:
1) They held a presidential election last Friday. Of the four candidates allowed to run by the mullahs who control the government, the front-runners were Mir-Hossein Mousavi, considered to be a moderate reformer who campaigned for better relations with the rest of the world and a relaxation of social rules, and the incumbent radical far-right anti-Western populist holocaust denier, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. In the weeks leading up to the election, it seemed increasingly likely that Mousavi could win, and he was drawing huge throngs of youth and educated middle class voters to his rallies. When the election finally happened on Friday, the 85% turnout seemed to bode well for Mousavi, as Iran’s population is very young and urban, and if they turned to vote, then he had a good chance. But when the government (the election is run by the Interior Ministry) miraculously announced the results almost immediately after the polls closed, instead of a close election, or a Mousavi win, they said it was a landslide in favor of Ahmadinejad, which seemed highly suspicious to say the least. First off, the fact that they could have possibly counted 40-42 million paper ballots within an hour or so of the polls closing beggars belief, and secondly, the high turnout should have favored the challenger. As the government continued to release more details, such as Ahmadinejad’s supposedly winning even in Mousavi’s and other candidates’ hometowns, it seemed pretty clear that the results were a blatant fraud.
2) Once Mousavi and his supporters realized what had happened, apparently with the blessings of the Supreme Leader, Sayyid Ali Khamenei, who endorsed the results, they began taking to the streets en masse. The educated, urban middle class, which is more or less Mousavi’s base, has been pretty much disenfranchised since the Islamic Revolution in 1979. Every now and then they will elect a reformer as the president, but the Supreme Leader has all the authority and so not much actually changes. So, 30 years repression, recent economic management had created a lot of discontent, and then the out-and-out theft of this election and utter disregard for the will of the people by the government was the last straw. So, for the last week there have been millions of Iranians out on the streets, day after day, protesting against the regime. People chant on their rooftops at night, and they seem absolutely determined in their desire for change.
3)The government’s response to these daily protests was very hesitant at first, but there have been increasing incidences violence, mostly on the part of the hardline paramilitary forces sympathetic to Ahmadinejad called the Basij. Meanwhile the government has been doing everything from cutting off mobile phones and texts and internet and television, to actively spreading misinfomation in order to quell the unrest. There have been sporadic episodes of brutality, including nightly Basij raids on homes and dormitories. In response, some of the protesters began responding in kind against the Basij, throwing rocks and setting their buildings on fire, though unlike the Basij, they have no guns. About 30-40 people at least had been killed during the week.
4) During Friday prayers, Khamenei gave a speech calling for an end to protests, insinuating that the unrest was caused by insidious foreign meddling (and “Zionists” of course), and that there would be “consequences” if the unrest continued, implying that protesters would henceforth face a brutal crackdown. Of course, the protesters, emboldened by the week of solidarity displayed by the huge crowds, had by now decided that Khamenei had basically lost any legitimacy, so they planned another huge rally for Saturday (today), setting the stage for a big showdown.
I went to bed last night a bit nervous about what would happen today. It seems like it was indeed pretty violent out there, but for the most part the government used its police and military forces to stop the protesters from even coming together in big numbers in the first place. I don’t know what is going to happen, if there will be a big massacre or a revolution or what, but I don’t see the protesters backing down and accepting the status quo ante. That just doesn’t seem realistic. The regime may still have control of armed force, has lost its legitimacy in the eyes of most of its people. I don’t think it can survive indefinitely unless there are major concessions, which I also don’t think it is prepared to make. This is a big moment, in that, if things go well, and the regime topples and is replaced by something more moderate and democratic, then such and Iran could really be a positive force in changing the course of history in the Middle East. Or things could go horribly awry and thousands of people could die. It feels like something big is going to happen, though.
Anyway, if you want to follow this, Nico Pitney at Huffington Post and Andrew Sullivan at the Atlantic have been doing almost nonstop updates since the election a week ago. The National Iranian American Council has a good blog too, and on Twitter I’ve found Tehran Bureau and Change For Iran to be useful.
